Sunday, December 30, 2012

Figuring Out Free Agency

The offseason is a fun time to be a fan. Every team will shuffle their rosters, drop, add, cut, sign or arbitrate players based on their belief on what changes need to be made. Fans and writers pay special attention to the free-agent class every winter. Every year there are a handful of questionable moves that leave everyone wondering "what where they thinking?" In an effort to help you, hopefully, better understand your teams moves here are some observations I have made looking over the past few years.

Losing is Hard to Break


When was your teams last winning season? When did they last compete in the playoffs? If it was more than 4 years ago, expect your team to overspend on free agents, and even that might not be enough. No one enjoys losing and athletes like it even less. Most of the top free agents will forgo a few million dollars to avoid playing on a team that doesn't have a chance of winning the World Series. Last season the Orioles couldn't lure a top free agent no matter how much they were willing to offer, when Mark Texieria was a free agent he opted for the Yankees and slightly less money than the Orioles offered. This season we have seen the Mariners get rebuffed by Josh Hamiltion (Angels), Nick Swisher (Indians), BJ Upton (Braves), and probably some others I have not yet heard about. New field dimensions be damned, these players do not want to waste their prime years merely playing the game, they want to play for October glory.
Those players who are willing to take money ask for, and receive, a king's ransom. Jayson Werth is easiest example, coaxing a then-losing Nationals team to give him more years (7) and money ($126 million) than any other team admitted to be willing to commit to him. This season two pitchers seemed to play the team against itself to get either more money (Jeremy Guthrie, Royals, 3/$25m) or years (Edwin Jackson, Cubs, 4/$52m). Nick Swisher with his 4/$52m deal with the Indians strikes me as another overpay. These players were able to convince a team to bid against itself in order to land their targets even when no other teams were willing to come near the terms agreed to. When it works the team starts to win and players are more willing to come over closer to market rate. The Nationals gamble on Werth paid off, they are now a top choice for players. The Orioles are now on the short list for players after their first winning season in 15 tries. They may have not signed any big names yet, but it is a start that other teams would pay for.

Pitching, Pitching and More Pitching


Pitchers get paid. True Kyle Lohse and Rafael Soriano highlight a list of free agent pitchers still available, but those who have signed are getting paid. Jonathon Broxton (Reds) and Brandon League (Dodgers) both landed 3/$21+million presumably to close. Neither are quite where Soriano goes and both have had issues in the recent past, but closers tend to get paid. Sean Burnett, Angels (2/$8m) and Mike Adams, Phillies (2/$12m) are getting paid handsomely to set up. There are still enough unemployed pitchers for bargain hunters, but for as much as GMs complain about the volatility of relief pitchers they spare no expense when addressing their own weaknesses.
Aside from the starters previously mentioned, Zack Grinke (Dodgers) has the offseasons top prize 6/$147m. It seems every year the top pitcher can name their price whether in years, average annual value, or total dollars and someone ponies up the dough. Other starters are not left searching for scraps either; Jeremy Gutherie and Ryan Dempster (2/$26.5m) from the Red Sox shows that if you have a track record teams will overlook a truly dismal performance for half a season when writing the checks. Francisco Loriano, Pirates (2/$12.75m), Tim Hudson, Braves (1/$9m), Dan Haren, Nationals (1/$13m) show that injuries and ineffectiveness are no barrier to an eight figure payday, and this is without mentioning Jorge de la Rossa, Rockies (1/$11m). If you can pitch long enough to show promise or longevity, someone will step up and extend your career and fatten your wallet in the process, not a bad gig if you can get it.

Never Underestimate an Owner


Finally, when a big free agent is available and the "mystery team" surfaces, look for the deep pockets of sole owners. George Steinbrenner made a habit of spending big on what he wanted, and usually getting it. Since his kids took over the operation the spending has been somewhat curtailed, but the pattern still rings true. Last year Albert Pujols was going back to the Cardinals, everyone knew it, all that was out there was some "mystery team" showing up late. Some players may use that specter as a marketing ploy, but Arte Moreno of the Angels was the wealthy old kook willing to outspend the Cardinals, by a large margin, to land the prized free agent. For these owners it is not about team needs as much as personal wants. These owners know they do not have a long time left and want to win a World Series before they go, so  they will shell out whatever they feel necessary for that pursuit. Moreno was at it again this season, landing Josh Hamilton (5/$125m) with barely a whisper of his interest. Mike Ilitch of Detroit is another such owner. Last season he shocked everyone by signing first baseman Prince Fielder for a kings ransom (9/$214m), despite having perennial MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera at the position. They were four wins from that gamble working out and Cabrera certainly appreciated the protection. Ilitch is back at it this offseason, signing Anibal Sanchez (5/$80m) over the Cubs and I would not be shocked if he does not open the pocket book one more time to get Rafael Soriano sometime in January.

To recap: if your team has a history of losing expect longer or more expensive contracts for just about any player. If your team is targeting pitchers, going cheap will not help land their target players, at least one other team is likely to show interest and flash a bit more cash. And finally, if the team has an aging owner, do not be surprised on anyone they go after, and likely land. There are plenty of other factors that make up the actions of teams in the offseason, these three just stick out to me. Feel free to let me know if you notice something else.

*Contract information was from MLBTR 2013 Free Agent Tracker

Friday, December 14, 2012

Yankee Plan Doesn't Add Up

Try as I might, I just cannot understand the mentality of the New York Yankees. On the one side they are preaching a need, not a desire, an actual need to get under the luxury tax in 2014. This makes sense, the new collective bargaining agreement drastically raises the taxes repeat offenders will pay every year. However, if a team falls under the luxury tax amount the tax rate resets. It is one thing to have one of the top three payrolls in the majors, it another to needlessly pay more for the privilege to make that claim. Paying the luxury tax leads to revenue sharing among the other teams and the Yankees have paid $224.2 million in luxury taxes over the past ten years --or slightly less than the Dodgers payroll appears to be for 2013. Staying under the level will allow the Yankees to keep a higher payroll than most while still fielding a contending team. As I said, this makes sense. It is how the Yankees are going about it that leaves me baffled.

The Yankees have made a priority of signing 1-year contracts this offseason to aging veterans. To date they have signed Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Ichiro Suzuki, and Kevin Youkilis. At 33, Youkilis is the youngest player signed by 5 years. They are not a terribly young team, their farm system was generously listed in the top 10 according to Fangraphs. These rankings are in flux right now and will be reviewed and redrafted sometime before opening day. That said, they lack high ceiling pitching in their farm system and given the contracts they are handing out they do not expect any fielding prospects to make an impact in 2013 either. (I am not an expert on minor league systems so if you wish to challenge me on this, please feel free) They still feel they are in a window of opportunity to win the world series and going for it is cash out of their wallet not mine. However, they are overpaying for these additional veterans to the point that they have little to no trade value.

Every year at the trade deadline teams will eat some money and trade a player for a better prospect, the money the Yankees would have to pay to do this makes such moves "head-scratching" at best. As Cots points out in their Yankee spreadsheet, the Yankees have $183 million on the books this season, before including arbitration players or Ichiro's money. In 2014, $75 million for 4 players, and that does not include Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Ichiro, or any of their arbitration players. The luxury tax is $189 million for 2014. So they will have around $115 million to play with, enough to run the entire payrolls of most teams. However, lets assume they go after, and get, Cano for an average value of $20 million a season. Toss in Ichiro's deal at $6.5 for 2014 and the arbitration eligible at $10 million players (currently 8 possible arbitration players, average $1.25 million/player). So 14 players for about $111 million. This leaves $77 million and still there will be holes in center, catcher, the rotation, the bullpen, and possibly shortstop. They will not boot Jeter out the door either, if he wants to play in 2014, he will get paid well to play "the Captain" if not for his on field production.

Add it all up, and that cap space diminishes rapidly. These are the Yankees, they do not do small, they do not deal with minor free agents. They will spend for a big arm because they need pitching, want to win, and do not really have much they can trade to get it right now. I say this thinking that Michael Pineda comes back and is a useful pitcher for them. They need to infuse some youth into their organization, useful, affordable parts that grow into the franchise. These players do not need to take over for the current players, they need to provide cost effective play and serviceable trade chips that their farm system is not currently providing. This would lower payroll while providing more cost certainty going forward. I do not understand their mentality of overpaying veterans this year and expecting anyone to think the same thing won't happen next off-season when their core is another year older and their holes still exist. Maybe they know something I don't, but maybe they have been looking at themselves in the mirror for too long.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Player-coaches, a Thing of the Past

The idea of the player-coach is dead. This should not be major news, Pete Rose was the last player coach in any of the big three sports back in 1986. The collective bargaining agreement in the NBA prevents the practice. Though it has been 26 years since the player-coach has been seen, it is an idea that refuses to die in the minds of fans. Amid the fallout of the New Orleans Saints Bounty Scandal was the notion of Drew Brees serving as coach for this season. The Chicago White Sox toyed with the idea of replacing Ozzie Guillen with first baseman Paul Konerko. Jason Giambi hinted at a desire to take the role early in the Colorado Rockies managerial search. He later announced that he would retire, if chosen as manager, but once again the idea sparked the imagination and left many wondering who the next player-coach could be. Aside from some fun speculation over beers with your friends, don't waste your time. The era of the player-coach is dead and it is not coming back.

Modern sports have devolved (or evolved depending on your view) from great all around players who could play any position to specialists. Pitchers are not just pitchers anymore, nor are they simply starters and relievers. Starters are "aces" "workhorses" and "back of the rotation arms". Relievers are "closers" "set-up men" "long relief" "middle relief" all the way down to "LOOGYs" (left-handed one out guys). Fielders are increasingly being labeled "platoon" players, benched against a right or left-hander based on advanced metrics designed to help give their team a competitive edge. Rare is the football player who plays offense and defense into college. Receivers are now "speed guys" "route runners" or "slot men." Most teams have a center, a backup center and a long-snapper. Is snapping the ball 10 yards so difficult that it requires a specialist? I would hope not, but the position exists. You can do this with just about every position on the field. The closest to a diverse talent you see anymore is a receiver/return man, but even then it is usually a mediocre receiver because if they are good receivers their return days are over.

In addition to the players, the duties of coaches have increased tremendously over the years. In baseball a staff will include the manager, a bench coach, a third base coach, a first base coach, a pitching coach, a bullpen coach and a hitting coach. Most recently a trend of hiring two hitting coaches has emerged and it wouldn't shock me to see a film coach added in the future. Managers no longer set a lineup and say "play ball," instead they have to study the lineups and tendencies not only of their roster, but the opposing pitchers as well. They have to manage egos and injuries and off field issues more than the game itself. Connie Mack has likely rolled over several times in his grave at how much players are catered to in the modern game.

Football is no better. There are head coaches, assistant coaches, offensive and defensive coordinators, not to mention line coaches, secondary coaches, quarterback coaches and on and on. The pace and scheme of the modern game demand the attention of such specialists and even then it might not be enough. Without Sean Payton, the Saints have been just 5-8 this season and have gone from potential Superbowl challengers to struggling to make the playoffs. Drew Brees is back, but the offense has struggled between stagnant and terrible all season. I doubt their record would improve if Drew Brees had more on his plate.

The largest factor in keeping the player-coach out of the game is the General Manager. General Managers are almost constantly on the hot seat. The wrong hire, the wrong personnel and they might not be around to fix the mistake. Increasingly these GMs are relying on advanced statistics and data to make their choices in their hires. They will compile reams of data on a player or a coach to fill one role. They are less informed about a players ability to handle coaching duties and increasingly less likely to take the risk.

While it may be fun to speculate Brees or Payton Manning or Ray Lewis or Alex Rodriguez coaching and playing their final season(s), keep in mind it will likely not come to pass. It is a notion that now belongs in sports history, but I doubt fans will ever stop speculating about it, and there is nothing wrong with that. 

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Coaching Blunders Make College Football So Entertaining

I enjoy college football. You enjoy college football most likely. It makes for fun and exciting entertainment on Fall Saturdays (or Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, or Fridays). Part of what makes it so fun is its unpredictability. Every game could can be a coin flip, if a star player goes down that could spell disaster for the season. We love the mass hysteria it creates, we loath the frustration our respective teams create for us. After watching games all season a few things generally strike me as the bane of a fans existence.

1) Not capitalizing on turnovers (especially at home). You know this scenario, your team gets an early turnover deep in opposing territory (say the red zone or just outside). They go for the quick play to the endzone and miss. They hand it off for maybe 2 yards. Third down they get maybe 3 more. 4th and 5 less than five minutes into the game and the coach goes for the touchdown. It fails. This is terrible on every front. Their defense knows your team can be stopped. Your offense fails to score points. All positive momentum is stymied on four plays, at home this can suck the life out the fans making it easier for the opponent to really seize momentum. The better plan is to go for it all, but accept 3 points when they are there. Of course you want touchdowns, but it makes the opposition feel worse when they turn the ball over AND give up points less than a minute later.

2) Being down by multiple scores and mismanaging the clock. Team down by 4-11 points and 6 minutes or left remaining. The team gets to the red zone, but stagnates. Yes we all want them to push on and make it happen, if this were a video game we would save the game and reset the scene until we succeeded. Our team doesn't get that luxury. March in, go for the quick score. Go for the two or three plays that either work or end in a penalty on the other team to get that touchdown. But know that it is a two score game and running into a brick wall defense is only going to kill the clock. Take the first score presented to you and allow your fans to hope for the best.

USC v Notre Dame was a prime example of this going wrong. Around 5 minutes remained in the game and they were within the red zone. They tried the same fade route to Marquis Lee on back to back plays. Both were under thrown, both resulted in pass interference penalties. Lane Kitten Kiffin followed this up with 3 straight running plays that neither got them into the end zone nor managed the clock. Not the end of the world to lose some clock time, but they needed a score. Naturally, Kiffin went for it, the pass was again under thrown and Notre Dame took over. This is poor coaching more than fault on the players. They needed two scores so get the first one and at least give your team a chance. Fans tend to appreciate such efforts.

Truly these are the two "killer" scenarios that came to mind for me. Icing the kicker might be one, but given how terrible kickers have been this year overall I decided to give them a pass. Kickers can't win and their coaches shouldn't organize their play selection to make them out to be the goat. I know there are others and I am curious to know what irks you most as a fan. Let me know in the comments below.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Upon closer inspection Ute fans should have seen this coming

Loyalty is a funny thing. It can cloud the judgment of those it infects into ignoring history, talent, and cold hard facts. No amount of logic will sway the loyal until after the fact and even then one is likely to get an apologists version of events. Utah Ute football fans fell victim to the siren song of loyalty and as we near the end of a second season in the 12 PAC their critics are pointing out flaws in their loyal proclamations of early success and the faithful are bemoaning injuries as the culprit. Both are right, both miss the point. Utah faced a tough road in its transition from the Mountain West to a power conference, but their fans looked more to recent history than to the distant past for guidance. It was a classic case of not seeing the forest for the trees. We can now look back and see not just what should have been obvious, but what to expect going forward as the Utes seek their first conference championship.

To be fair, the aughts were not just good for the Utes, they were great. Coaches changed, but still the Utes kept winning. Ron McBride (88-63) was fired and Urban Meyer (22-2) built upon that foundation and led the Utes to an undefeated 2004 season and bragging rights as the first non-BCS conference school to not only make a BCS bowl, but to win won. Urban left and Kyle Whittingham (70-31) took over. Four years later the Utes became the first non-BCS conference school to twice be invited to a BCS bowl and win. Utah went 2-0 against the mighty SEC in those bowl games even when they had to go down to Georgia the second time.

Shortly after that the Utes got the dream invitation of all mid-major programs, the chance to move up to a power conference. They left longtime rival BYU behind and looked to embrace new rivalries and a brighter spotlight. Ute fans were ecstatic not just for the move, but to thumb their noses at the team down South. Scandal and scheduling did nothing to dampen the joy. USC was hit hard with sanctions stemming from Reggie Bush that would impact USC during the first years of Ute membership. The conference was divided North and South and by great fortune rising powers Oregon and Standford were left off the Utes schedule their first two years. The only way they would possibly meet was in a conference championship. Utah was among the elite of the mid-major programs nationwide and other than USC the 12 PAC South did not look too intimidating. This was the short sighted history fans chose to accept and crow from the rooftops at just how high Utah might rise, refusing to recall the lessons of Icarus, refusing to accept just how difficult a challenge their team was facing.

Had Ute fans looked beyond the Crimson colored end zones of Rice Eccles stadium, they would have seen the graveyard that was mid-major programs upon making the jump to "real conferences". My focus here is on teams that jumped up to the PAC. As Arizona and Arizona State learned when they left the Western Athletic Conference back in 1978, it is not an easy transition. Arizona went 5-6 overall its first season (3-4 in conference) and finished tied for 6th. They would not make their first bowl game as a member of the PAC 10 until 1985 and did not win the conference until 1993 (their only PAC 10 championship). Arizona State has been a little better, finishing 9-3 overall (4-3) and tied for 4th their first year, when they also made their first bowl game. ASU has won the conference three separate times, the first coming in 1986. Now Utah was not terrible overall in its first year, finishing with an 8-5 record and a bowl victory. However, the Utes went just 4-5 in the conference and clearly struggled with the week-to-week grind.

This has been a respectable season, but not what Ute fans were used to and through solid play late last season, Ute fans came back with renewed optimism. Alas, Utah already has 5 in-conference losses this season and will be pressed just to match last seasons record. Moving up in competition comes with its bumps and bruises. Utah fans have every right to believe that it will not take 7.5 years to win the first 12 PAC championship, but in hindsight it was foreseeable that Utah would struggle and it might take a few years to match the personnel on the field necessary for their team to win. The first two seasons did not deliver the fairy tale endings Ute fans envisioned, but in two or three years when their recruits are on par with the rest of the 12 PAC don't be surprised if they capture that crown. 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Loria Security Lies with Bud

Earlier today we learned about a blockbuster trade between the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays. While the trade has not been made official yet, it is likely just a matter of time. It took Jeff Loria, owner of the Marlins, less than 12 months to get rid of three All-Star caliber players signed to long term contracts and take the team payroll from $98 million to around $16 million dollars. The only most notable player left in Miami is Giancarlo Stanton. Don't be surprised if major news outlets attempt to spearhead a campaign to have Bud Selig force Loria to sell the team. Don't be surprised when that call falls on deaf ears.

Bud Selig after all is the man who supported his efforts as the then owner of the Montreal Expos to seek a city-funded new stadium. When Montreal (wisely) rejected the demand Loria, Selig, and then Florida Marlins owner John Henry came up with a plan to allow Henry to sell his team to Loria, Loria to sell his team to the Commissioners Office, and Bud to get approval from the rest of the league owners. Once sold, Loria moved on to become owner of Florida, Henry relocated to Boston and within 2 years each had a World Series ring. Nothing has smelled quite right on these people since.

Loria took over a new team, won the World Series in 2003 and immediately dumped most of the talent making more than the league minimum. When holdovers, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrel Willis, got too expensive he shipped them to Detroit. Loria then said he was going to try and build a winner, including signing then face-of-the-franchise Hanley Ramirez to a contract extension along with Josh Johnson. This helped convince the Miami City Officials to approve a taxpayer funded new stadium which was followed up with large contract free agents last winter. Once again Loria has dumped talent while keeping a young, affordable slugger behind only now he plays in a gaudy new stadium. Keep an eye on the batting prospects Toronto is giving up because odds are good Giancarlo's replacement is among them.

I spoke about John Henry in my first post and do not have much to add on him here.

Bud Selig has supported Loria every dirty step along the way. He not only let Loria change ownership, he helped Loria get a $38 million dollar interest free loan from MLB to buy the Marlins. He attempted to have Montreal contracted along with the Minnesota Twins after the sale went through. He refuses to bat an eye on the salary dumps. He supported Loria's efforts to get the new stadium funded, it helps support MLBs bottom line. More importantly to Bud, it is another new stadium that he can put on his list of "accomplishments" during his tenure as commissioner. Loria already ranks among the worst owners in professional sports, so hits to his credibility cannot possibly do much more damage to his reputation. 

Should Loria be forced out as owner of the Miami Marlins? Yes, preferably with a fine that diverts any profits from the sale going first to paying off the stadium before he gets anything. Will it happen? No, his actions have been endorsed by Bud Selig for over a decade and it is too much to hope that Selig did what was right for baseball fans everywhere. So what can be done? Boycott anything related to the Miami Marlins, even if they visit your team on the road. Empty stadiums will get the league interested. It is a decade late, but America can no longer ignore just how terrible Jeff Loria really is. Who said Canadians were slow?

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A Layman's Guide to the 12-PAC

The 12-PAC is in its second football season, but I understand some people are still trying to sort out who ended up where in all the conference realignment that has taken place recently. In order to help you out, I present my walk-through of the 12-PAC*.

(* if you insist on calling it the PAC-12 I assume you are under 21, or just no fun)

It is a veritable jungle out West and if you are a fan of the Utes
I don't get Swoop in the least and do not recognize it as a legitimate mascot

your best bet is to come hungry and be well prepared to tackle some Buffalo,

 stalk some Wildcats
Yeah there mascot isn't a female, but you probably didn't notice until you read this anyway
or go Duck hunting.
I prefer open water Duck Hunting

You even have a sporting chance to bag your choice of bear: Golden
That might be the ugliest mascot ever
 Or Bruin
Attempting to hide behind the scenery

But proceed with caution or you may be fall victim to the Sun Devils.
Consider me tempted by the Devils (Cheerleaders)

If you can survive the jungle you are halfway done. The nightlife is calling and what better way to being than by wrapping up the Trjoans
Judging by the beanie it must be December

before blitzing some Beavers.

Still up for more? Then head to the Northwest where you can try hold down the Huskies
Not the best spelling team out there

or sack energetic Cougars.
Not a bad scoreboard distraction
No matter your game plan you better be prepared because any opportunity for success may also leave you high and dry like a Cardinal in a Tree.
Um, yeah
So now you have a better understanding of what awaits you in the 12-PAC, happy hunting.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Time to rethink the worst baseball contract ever?

Congratulations to the San Francisco Giants on being the 2012 World Series Champions. That team dominated the Detroit Tigers from start to finish in the series and should look forward to their parade. Joy is in the air, and that is why now might be the best time to review the 7 year/ $126 million dollar contract signed by Barry Zito back in 2007.

According to many metrics this has turned out to be a terrible deal for the Giants and likely has made a few teams hesitant to sign pitchers to expensive, long-term contracts. During the regular season his results have been less than encouraging posting a 58-69 record and 4.47 ERA. This was far from what the Giants expected to get from Zito whose Oakland numbers 102-63 and 3.55 ERA were more in line with the teams expectations. As a general rule pitchers transition from the AL to the NL well partly as a result of not having to face a DH in the lineup. Zito was the exception to the general rule and saw his ERA balloon more than a run above his Oakland years. Diminishing returns had many wondering if the Giants would dump his salary for the remaining two years of his contract. Anyway you look at his regular season numbers shows the same thing, he has vastly underperformed his contract value.

However, there are other ways to look at his value. I reviewed Cot's Baseball Contracts and found 36 contracts valued at $100,000,000.00 or more. Players under those contracts have made the world series 18 times. 12 of them have won the world series and 4 others lost to a team that also featured another 100 million dollar man. Keep in mind I limited my analysis to players results based only in years in which a player was under their 100 million contracts, not before or after. Of those players only 3 of them captured multiple world series rings, Albert Pujols (2006, 2011); Manny Ramirez (2004, 2007); and Barry Zito (2010, 2012). Winning the World Series is the ultimate goal of every team year in and year out. Teams shell out big money for players who will help lead the team not just into the postseason, but deep into the postseason. The desire is that their play justifies their contracts, but even if they just keep pressure off other players who are producing as long as they win, that should be enough. San Francisco would be right to have demanded more for their investment, but after 2 World Series victories and only 1 year left on Zito's contract, perhaps the fans should step back and appreciate what Zito helped bring to the Bay. $126 million for 2 rings sounds like a pretty fair trade, just ask Rockies fans how they feel about the Giambi and Helton contracts.

Sunday, October 28, 2012

The 12 Plaque

Bleh. The 12-Pac had some fantastic games today, unfortunately how it panned out had to leave league followers looking for their Listerine. This season brought joyous potential not just to 12-Pac fans, but SEC haters nationwide. However, this season has not turned out well and today was a crushing blow to national recognition.

Oregon was the only team that did what is was supposed to. They demolished the farce of the league, Colorado, 70-14. However, the highly touted USC Trojans dropped their second in conference game, falling to Arizona 39-36. In the late game Oregon State fell victim to turnovers and the Washington Huskies 20-17. All conferences want to be good, top to bottom, but to be an elite conference the top schools should win week in and week out. Today the 12-Pac failed to do that and their national prestige took a big hit.

Parity is fantastic in every league, but when 2 of your top ranked schools fall to unranked teams in the same week the national consensus changes to parody. Stanford squeaked by Washington State 24-17 in a win that only looks good at the end of the season. Utah dominated California to ensure that Washington State remains the lone 12-Pac team without a conference win. Yippee. The Trojans are going to start feeling their sanctions starting next year and every injury will be amplified, hurting their chances to run the table in coming years. Oregon will have to wonder if the coach is going to jump to the NFL (no reason for him to laterally move in college). Unless Rich Rod, Mike Leach or another coach can get their team to step up, national respect will be tough going over the next few years. This is not to step on teams rising up, but when two of your top three teams fall flat in the same week the whole conference suffers. 

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Identifying the Top NL Catcher

 The talking heads of the postseason finally got to me. It happened in the NLCS whenever Buster Posey and Yadier Molina came up. Posey was referred to as the "NL MVP" as though the votes have been counted and Molina was referred to as an "MVP candidate." This very well could be how the voting plays out and I would not be upset or surprised. However, these talking heads laid the claim on Posey being a catcher and the more demanding defensive role that requires over say Ryan Braun in left field. So it was a combination of offensive power and defensive skill that led them to anoint Posey as the NL MVP (factors the talking heads ignored in the AL where they are behind Miguel Cabrera despite his defensive limitations).
 Rather than debate the MVP merits of the players, I decided to look at who is the better all around catcher in the National League. 2012 brought spectacular seasons from both Posey and Molina, but as a catcher specifically Yadier Molina deserves top billing.

The Numbers on Buster Posey

 Buster Posey had a banner year after coming back from a season ending leg injury on May 25, 2011. He recovered to make 143 starts this season for the San Francisco Giants. Overall his offensive numbers were excellent: 178 hits, 39 doubles, 24 home runs and 103 rbi with 96 strikeouts. This was good enough for a league high .336 batting average and with the help of 69 walks produced a .408 OBP. Helping his numbers was a career high .368 batting average on balls in play (babip), his previous babip high was .326 during his shortened 2011 season. Such a high babip is more an indication of good fortune than something sustainable year after year. His numbers benefited from his batting 4th most of the time, but probably helped contribute to his 19 ground into double-plays.
 In an effort to keep his bat in the lineup, the Giants moved Posey out from behind the plate often. As a result he caught in 112 games and a total of 973 innings. During that time he was charged with 8 errors and had a fielding percentage of .991 (the league average was .992) so he was slightly below average. His 30% caught sealing rate was just above the league average (27%) and he also picked off 2 players during the year. He started 29 games at 1st as well. So defensively Posey was average when looking at the raw numbers. However, the numbers hide some interesting facts. Of the regular 5 in the Giants rotation he did not catch Tim Lincecum or Barry Zito regularly during the season. While Zito could be explained as the starting catcher getting a rest day with the 5th starter on the mound, I can come to no similar conclusion for Lincecum. Lincecum did have the worst season of his career which could speak well for Posey, but we are still left wondering why 40% of the rotation does not use him as their primary catcher.

The Numbers on Yadier Molina

 Molina had a solid offensive year in 2011, but 2012 was a career season. Over 133 starts Molina notched 158 hits, with 28 doubles, 22 home runs and 76 rbi with an impressive 55 strike outs. Molina posted a .315 batting average and along with his 45 walks notched a .373 OBP. Molina also benefited from a career high babip of .316 which is more sustainable. Much of the numerical differences between Molina and Posey result from Molina batting 6th or 5th most of the season. Molina was more productive on the base paths with 12 stolen bases (15 attempts) and only 10 ground into double plays. While they may bat in different parts of their respective lineups, both are productive offensive catchers that their teams can and do rely on for success.
 Molina might be the most talented of the Molina brothers, but all of them were noted for their defensive skill. Molina caught 134 games and 1161.1 innings in 2012 while committing only 3 errors for a .997 fielding percentage. On top of that he caught 48% of would be base stealers and picked off 5 others. Molina caught every pitcher on his staff regularly while only playing 2 games at first. Molina was well above average in these defensive metrics and Cardinal fans are likely ecstatic that his new contract will keep him around for several seasons to come.

Baseball executives would gladly have either of these catchers on their teams, but if you are looking for the best overall catcher I have to go with Yadier. Their offensive numbers are comparable, while Yadier had a clear advantage in 2012 defensively.

Do you agree or disagree with my take? Have an explanation for Posey not catching certain pitchers? Any all comments are welcome.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

National League Recap

Congrats to the San Francisco Giants for fighting through a trio of must win games to advance to the World Series where they will take on the Detroit Tigers starting Wednesday. The National League post-season had a bit more drama surrounding it than their AL counterparts, but after the full complement of postseason games the Giants will represent the league and start the series at home. Here is my takeaway for the playoff teams this season and going forward.

Atlanta Braves

Season Result: Lost in the NL Wild Card to the St. Louis Cardinals
Meet the first victims of the new wild card format. Fans of the Braves will bemoan the judgment of the umpires in calling the vague infield fly rule on a ball no where near the infield. Debate away, the rule is vague and relates to infielders not field location and as a judgement rule is likely something that would not be open to replay review. Of bigger concern for the Braves should be their inability to score multiple times in the game despite getting runners in scoring position. It was an unfortunate end to Chipper Jones career, but this team showed a lot of character in recovering from last seasons late collapse and making the postseason. The Braves made few offseason changes following that collapse, trusting in the players and managers to recover, and that faith was rewarded. The Braves have a solid core of young players and seem to keep finding a viable arm every time they turn around. The Braves should take pride in making the postseason this year and use it as a stepping stone for future postseason runs.

Cincinnati Reds

Season Result: Lost the NLDS 2-3 to the San Francisco Giants
The Reds ran away with the NL Central despite long injuries to Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. Votto was able to come back and be on the field, but his injuries sapped his power and made him a non-threat in the postseason. The Reds real result stems from Dusty Baker being Dusty Baker. Dusty loves veteran players and defined lineups and roles. In the NLDS this had him play Scott Rolen over Todd Frazier at third despite Rolen just coming back from injuries and Frazier having a solid second half of the season. He also kept Votto batting in the heart of the order when it was clear he was not a threat. It also led him to keep Chapman in the bullpen for 9th inning save opportunities instead of when games 3-5 were still in the balance. He is a solid manager, but he has come up short with the Cubs, Giants, and now the Reds. In the postseason he gets out-coached and there is no reason to expect that to change. The team looks destined to compete for not just the Central but perhaps for the best record in the NL next season. Rolen is likely to retire giving Frazier more playing time and Votto will have time to heal and get his power back. The biggest question they have going forward is what to do with Chapman, do they have their closer of the future or do they plug him into the rotation? How they answer this question will go a long way to seeing if next season they can't play a little deeper into October.

San Francisco Giants

 Season Result: TBD, beat St. Louis Cardinals in NLCS 4-3
The Giants fought back for the second straight series to force a winner take all game, and they won both of them. They took advantage of poor Cardinal defense to win 3 of the 4 games off of unearned runs. The series against Detroit should be an interesting series, but unless they want to face Justin Verlander in three times they should try and avoid a third winner take all series. Looking forward they are still a limited offensive team and will be looking for an outfielder and possibly a shortstop for next season. A bigger question mark is the pitching staff. Brian Wilson should be back, but will he be dominant or will he have lost something? If he is back to dominating they will be among the favorites to get back to the world series in 2013. Their starting rotation is a little more worrying. Barry Zito outperformed Tim Lincecum this season. Zito is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract (an option for '14 exists) and so does Timmy. Are they both on the way out, can Zito maintain his current level, was Timmy's season an aberration or a warning? It will be interesting to see what happens for them next season, but they can put those thoughts on hold as they still have games to play this season.

St. Louis Cardinals 

Season Result: Lost NLCS to San Francisco Giants  3-4
The song says hearts get left in San Francisco, but that leaves the Cardinals wondering where their gloves and their bats went. Game 7 was the first game where the Cardinals lost without giving up an unearned run. They gave up 10 unearned runs, the most for a NL team in a playoff series ever. For such a fundamentally sound team throughout the season they collapsed at the wrong time. Compounding the situation was the bats stopping their production. This team thumped the Nationals, they thumped their way to a 3-1 lead and then managed just 1 run in San Francisco. This team will likely spend a few days just digesting this collapse. When they are ready to move beyond the doom and gloom of this season they should have plenty of optimism for the future. They came within one win of back-to-back World Series appearances despite losing an iconic coach, the face of their franchise, and their superstar first basemen. Not many teams could overcome the loss of pitching coach Dave Duncan (personal reasons), Tony LaRussa (retirement), and Albert Pujols (free agency) and still expect to make the postseason let alone get as far as they did. It is a credit to the front office that their farm system continues to churn out as much talent as it does. They also found a rookie coach in Mike Matheny capable of guiding this team through the departures and injuries who should continue to make the Cardinals a major force next season when Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright hope to both be back, healthy, and ready for a full season.

Washington Nationals

Season Result: Lost NLDS to St. Louis Cardinals 2-3
One positive for the Nationals going forward is that their rotation next postseason should be much improved with Stephen Strasburg hoping to get a taste of the postseason. That is assuming good health for the rest of the rotation and that this team will be good enough to get back to the postseason next year. Despite the horrendous 9th inning collapse in game 5 to the Cardinals they look like a solid bet to make the postseason for years to come. The bullpen has some questions, but so do most bullpens every year. Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper will only improve on this season, Jayson Werth hopes to have a healthy full season and the restrictions should be off of their rotation. When your biggest decision is keeping both Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche or letting one go and getting an available center fielder your problems are pretty small. A Washington based team made the post season for the first time since 1933, the area should not have to wait nearly that long to get back.  

Friday, October 19, 2012

American League Recap

Congratulations to the Detroit Tigers on sweeping the New York Yankees to win the ALCS and will represent the American League in the 2012 World Series. Now that the American League has been whittled down to one, what can we take away from the post-season? Plenty, here are my takeaways on the teams this season and going forward along with some miscellaneous thoughts.

Baltimore Orioles

Season Result: Lost the ALDS to the NY Yankees 2-3.
The Orioles shocked everyone by not only reaching their first winning season in 15 years, but by competing for the AL East title until the final series.They shocked Texas in the wild card play-in game, but the magic was smothered by a dominant CC Sabathia in game 5 of the ALDS. This was a great result for the Orioles, but a lack of top end starting pitching leaves me skeptical that they will repeat this seasons success. Still, breaking the spell of a losing culture may help lure in a few key free agents and a consecutive winning season could be on tap for 2013.

Detroit Tigers

Season Result: TBD, Beat the NY Yankees 4-0 in ALCS
Detroit did not play up to their hype and waited until the end of the season to claim the AL Central. Winning the Central worked in their favor as they survived a spirited series from Oakland before sweeping away the ghosts of New York. Lost behind the luster of Triple Crown Winner Miguel Cabrera and Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander were the overlooked contributions of Prince Fielder, Delmon Young and the emerging success of Max Scherzer. The rest of the team has done a masterful job playing second fiddle to their super-two and now their desired result is just four wins away.

New York Yankees

Season Result: Lost ALCS to the Detroit Tigers 0-4
This aging team was exposed this postseason and their lack of offense does not bear well for this team going forward. The key blow struck early in the season with Mariano Rivera going down to ACL surgery. They were able to win the AL East without him, but his presence in the postseason was sorely missed. As the post-season goes the crushing blow had to be losing Derek Jeter to a broken ankle in the 12th inning of game 1 of the ALCS. That blow seemed to suck the heart out of the team as they faded quietly into the offseason after that. Looking forward New York cannot like what they see. Assuming a 37-year old Jeter will return healthy and productive by opening day is a pipe dream. Just look at how long it took the much younger Stephen Drew and David Freese to come back from similar injuries. If he struggles to come back where can he go? Alex Rodriguez will still be over at third, Cano at second, Texiara at first. I do not believe the Captain will go quietly to the DH or LF. This team may still win, but don't be surprised if they make like the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies.

Oakland Athletics

Season Result: Lost ALDS to the Detroit Tigers 2-3
If you can feel bad about the result of the Athletics season you better be Billy Beane. This team had the lowest payroll in the AL (and second lowest overall) to start the season. They traded their top 2 pitchers before the season began and still had a dominant pitching staff. The entire infield was replaced in season and they still won the AL West over the big spending Anaheim Angels (4th overall) and Texas Rangers (6th). Similar to the Orioles they fell short in game 5 of the ALDS, but that should not take away from the run this team had and the key pieces they have going forward. Winning the AL West is a reachable goal, but they should contend next season for at least a wildcard spot.  

Texas Rangers

 Season Result: Lost AL Wildcard game to Orioles
Arguably the most disappointing team in the AL Postseason. A team that was almost penciled in for the World Series suffered a late season collapse that forced them into the wildcard game instead of ALDS*. (*as the Rangers and Orioles finished with identical records they would have had an extra game with either last seasons format or this seasons) Getting beat, at home, to Joe Saunders probably feels like a little salt in the wound, but their problems were greater than one game. They truly felt the loss of CJ Wilson and with a few key injuries to their pitching staff they lacked the ace they needed to work deep into the postseason. Going forward they need to look at the pitchers on their roster and see if they don't need to go after a front line starter or gamble on what they have. I like Yu Darvish, but I think he is better off as a #2 at best on this team. They also have a decision on Josh Hamilton, but keep him or kick him, I think their offense will be more than enough going forward. Texas fell victim to a wildcard game, but they should be back competing for the AL West and a deep run into the 2013 postseason.


  • Replay is coming. Technology is at the point where quick and decisive calls can be made during the postseason on safe/out force plays as well as fair/foul/homerun calls. I only hope they look more to tennis and its quick responses to challenges and less to the NFL and the 2 minute review and 3 minute explanation. 
  • Zombie Bud Selig wins again. The wildcard pitted a great story David (Orioles) against the expectant Goliath (Texas). On top of that for the first time ever all four ALDS series when to five games. Cash grab though it was this season, in the AL it worked to perfection.

Monday, October 15, 2012

Yahoo! Fantasy Analysts in Review

I play fantasy baseball. I started doing it to reconnect with the game and get to know the new players coming in. In that regard I have succeeded. I play over at Yahoo! since they have a solid set-up and give you some options when joining a public league. I also prefer rotisserie formats for baseball over weekly head to head, as the season is long and you can usually recover from injuries/ineffectiveness with a mixture of patience and diligence.

Any fantasy sports player interested in winning championships does their own research, but seeks other opinions knowing they do not have time to do all the necessary research throughout the season. The key is finding out which opinions, and my focus is on "expert" opinions, are worth reading for assistance and which are only worth a read, if that. As I use Yahoo! and have for many years I wanted to do a season ending review of their fantasy baseball experts: Brad Evans, Brandon Funston, Andy Behrens, Scott Pianowski, and Michael Salfino. I am using topics covered, relevant information, dedication to the season, and adaptation to the season as criteria. Keep in mind these writers work as a team and necessarily focus on different areas and that they are trying to give a broad analysis to help as many as possible, not just help you win.

Brad Evans

Articles: Pickups of the Week-Pitchers; All Wiener Team

Brad Evans often mistakes volume over substance both in his writing and when he is miked up. He knows his stuff, as every expert does, but he often comes across more as the guy at the bar than the fantasy expert you should respect. The All-Wiener Team is a mid-season report where he calls out some of the biggest flops in the season. If these players are on your team, you know they are slumping, but you take a bitter pleasure in seeing someone else call them out as well. I always find it a fun read mid-season. The pitcher pickups of the week is designed to highlight several rising pitchers who might be available on the waiver wire. He keeps it up until around September when most the staff switches over to fantasy football exclusively and the feature stops being all that relevant*. The information tries to blend player trends with upcoming opponents to sell the move. This is where his "guy at the bar" persona comes in and rather than delve below the surface he recommends players who have either recently struggled or about to take on a team on the rise. This is worth a read and maybe follow a pitcher or two, but I did not find it worth immediate action. If he modifies his approach to look at teams on the rise it could prove more useful

* if you think fantasy baseball is a bigger cash cow than fantasy football I really can't help you

Brandon Funston

Articles: Pickups of the Week; Pickups of the Week-Hitters; Early Season All-Waiver Team; Big Board

Funston was given the task of keeping up on rising/overlooked talent and filtering it out for us all season long. The Pickups of the Week covered hitters and pitchers usually on Mondays. This can be a useful source for where to look for injury replacements as the season goes on. He attempts to focus on players available in less than half of Yahoo! leagues so there is a great chance that who he recommends is available in your league. However, since his focus is on lesser owned players you need to pay attention and know who is on a fluke streak and who might be worth the gamble. I recommend using this to flesh out your watch list. He attempts to do the same thing with the Pickups of the Week-Hitters which usually came out on Fridays. This was less successful as it seemed he was identifying no-brainer players to pick-up who were probably scooped up in a competitive league. Not bad to check out, but likely a day late on value. The Early Season All-Waiver Team is something he puts together about a month into the season that looks at stars who were likely undrafted in your league. I like this even though at least half the team is already taken. These are the surprise players of the year and many will likely perform above average for the season. If I can add one or two I do, if I have to add some to my watch list and wait I will. Your team needs some assistance throughout the season and this is a list of potential helpers. Finally, the Big-Board, is a staple he brought over from his Fantasy Football posts. He attempts to rank the top fifty players along with the rest of the staff. These lists are interesting but not all that useful. If you want to have a mock debate on relative value go ahead, but this list isn't even that useful for ranking trade potential.

Andy Beherns

Closer Reports, 2-Start Pitcher of the Week, Video: Starting Pitcher Pick-ups

Closer Reports is an attempt to give you a list of teams closer committees and the relative security the closers have. This is well meaning, but I do not find it all that helpful. To begin with closers on the hot seat are usually quickly identified and replacements picked up before a post like this surfaces weekly. It also just ranks the teams 1-30 with no divide between secure closers, bubble closers, and drop worthy closers which could make it more useful. His next segment the 2-Start Pitcher of the Week is geared toward those who play head-to-head fantasy baseball. As a rotisserie player this is mere reading filler and you can move on. I am trying to focus just on the written articles as their videos segments are sporadic throughout the season at best. However, Beherns attempts to suggest some pitcher pickups throughout the season and this segment is a surefire bomb for your team. The analysis he provides appears to focus more on season records and ballparks than exploding offenses  and in-season trends. During San Diego's red-hot August-September he twice recommended questionable pitchers because "everyone likes Petco Park," you can do better analysis and should if you plan on winning your league.

Scott Pianowski

Shuffle-Ups, Closing/Opening Time, Daily Streamers

Scott Pianowski has been the most active blogger for Yahoo! fantasy baseball and sticks it out through the end of the season. He gets kudos for sticking it out and trying to help the dwindling masses still looking for advice. A few weeks into the season he starts his Shuffle-Up columns which chose a position and gives an auction valued tiered rank of where he values those players if a draft started that day. He rotates through all positions and gets around 3 shuffle ups per position throughout the year. This is a great read because he puts players in tiers with his explanation as to why, he also lets readers comment and challenge his ranks to cover missed players and over/under valued players and may adjust his ranks accordingly. Also, he ignores players on the DL, they are not playing so he removes their distraction. You can use this to argue player rankings or to evaluate possible trades in your league. However you chose to use this, these articles are informative reads and should be sought out. The Closing/Opening Time is his read on the days action. It provides some quick analysis and takeaways from the night in case you were out. This is a good source to identify injury replacements or rising players to watch. It can be a little too pitcher heavy, but he tries to balance and provide justification for his beliefs. Early in September he begins a Daily Streamers post to replace the Closing/Opening Time articles. His object is to let you know pitchers coming up who should be available and ranks them into tiers from solid gambles to don't waste your time. If you have innings to burn and stats to collect for a late season run this is a useful last check before selecting who to add/avoid. Pianowski is not perfect, but he does try to provide statistical justification for his recommendations. He also admits when he is wrong and tries to help. If you read only one fantasy expert on Yahoo! I recommend Pianowski or...

Michael Salfino

By the Numbers

Michael Salfino does not write specifically to the add/drop mindset of fantasy baseball. Rather his By the Numbers articles look at pitching with a sabermetric analysis. These are fantastic articles that point out some unique ways to look at pitchers and identify value. He looks at both starters and relievers, but generally divides the two. His articles outline his approach, his goal, and any limits he puts into the data. If you grasp the basics of advanced analysis these are great reads that can really take your pitching moves to the next level.

These analysts are trying to help each of us succeed and hopefully this article helps you decide which analysts are most helpful to you. Do you have a different take on these players, someone else to recommend, or just want to add your two-cents go ahead and let me know.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Season In Review

The baseball season is a grind of 162 games (at least) over six months and every year seems to show us something new and amazing. With that in mind here are some highlights I have picked out from this season:

  • Mike Trout being the best overall player in the game. The writers will let us know if he was the MVP in November, but whether or not he wins should not undermine the WOW factor he brought this season. At 20/21 he is on the verge of joining Erik Davis and Barry Bonds as the only members of the 30 home run / 50 stolen base club, not bad company for a rookie. Add into that his spectacular defense in center field and he was non-stop entertainment all season.
  • Miguel Cabrera capturing the Triple Crown for the first time since 1967. Sabermatricians may devalue the stats required to win the award, but the ability to post a .331/44/137 line that is tops in the league is an amazing feat for the best pure hitter this season. 
  • Dominant Pitching was again a strong theme this season. A record tying 7 no-hitters, including 3 perfect games is amazing. If you think the number takes anything off the luster of those performances, you just do not appreciate the combination of skill, effort, and luck required by the pitchers and their defenses.
  • Parity is alive and well. Three of the top four payrolls at the start  of the season will not be in the postseason. Instead of the Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Angels playing October ball we are seeing the upstart Washington Nationals (20th in payroll), the Baltimore Orioles (19th) and the Oakland Athletics (29th) getting a chance. Of the expected three only the Angels put together a successful but ultimately fruitless 89 win season. The Orioles snapped a streak of 15 consecutive losing seasons to mark another successful turn around for coach Buck Showalter. Despite the second lowest payroll in baseball and trading away their top 2 starters in the offseason, the Athletics might be even more of a post season shocker than the Orioles. One of those trades was Gio Gonzales to the Washington Nationals who many figured to improve but almost no one pegged to win the NL East. 
  • First year managers shocked us as much for those who succeeded as failed. Dave Sveum (ChC) gets a pass as the Cubs were not expected to do much and trades and injuries in their starting rotation made the final record worse than the team was playing. Bobby Valentine was brought back after a decade away from the majors and it showed. He was completely out of touch with the modern game and failed to motivate players to do more than complain. If he comes back to the Red Sox next season I cannot name anyone who will be on a hotter seat. Ozzie Guillen changed from the AL to the  NL and most expected to see a competitive team in Miami. However, after Ozzie opened his mouth and said the one thing everyone knows not to say in Miami, the team seemed unravel around him. Injuries and bullpen struggles did not help, but he never seemed to connect with his players his first season. Robin Ventura and Mike Matheny both stepped into big managerial holes. Ventura replacing Guillen and Matheny replacing the legendary Tony La Russa who left after winning the World Series. Neither had previous managerial experience and yet both were able to coax winning seasons out of their players and were in contention for the playoffs until the final week of the season. I expect there will be plenty of teams who will take a chance on less experienced managers over the next several years. 
  • Rookies meeting absurd expectations. Coming into the season big spotlights were cast on Yu Darvish, Yoennis Cespedes, and Bryce Harper and all three met their lofty expectations. Yu Darvish not only made the all-star team in his first season, but has continued to pitch well all season and his numbers (16-9 with 221 K's and a 3.90 ERA over 191.1 innings) should improve as he adjusts to the MLB game. Cespedes generated plenty of chatter with his showcase video in the offseason, but as his numbers show he has produced at a very high level (.291/69 runs/23 HR/82 RBI/16 SB)and if it were not for Mike Trout he would likely be the AL Rookie of the Year. Bryce Harper might have been the most hyped prospect ever and though his final numbers don't jump off the page, the (.270/97 runs/22 HR/59 RBI/ 18 SB) puts him in elite company among teenage ballplayers.  Watching the way he hustles, hits and throws is a joy and he has already mastered handling the media. All three were major contributors to their teams and instrumental in their teams making the postseason.
I will review and update this later, but let me know in the comments what caught your attention this season that I may have overlooked.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Baseball it's a Numbers Game

Athletes wear uniforms with numbers to help fans and officials identify the players.  Baseball is unlike football where certain positions are assigned certain numbers. Baseball loves numbers as much as any sport out there and some players will go out of their way to get a number they "always" wear if it is available. As a result you can have some impressive years by men wearing the same number around the league. My eye was drawn this year to the number 27. 22 of 30 teams had someone wear the number this season and the starting roster they could put together is impressive offensively.

C - John Jaso (Sea)
1B - Chris Parmelee (Cle) / Lyle Overbay (Atl)
2B - Jose Altuve (Hou)
3B - Scott Rolen (Cin)
SS - Jhonny Peralta (Det)
LF - Matt Kemp (LAD)
CF - Mike Trout (LAA)
RF - Mike Stanton (Mia)
DH - Raul Ibanez (NYY)
Bench - Carlos Gomez (OF/Mil); Brayan Pena (C/KC); Leonys Martin (OF/Tex); Placido Polanco (3B/2B/Phi); Endy Chavez (OF/Bal); Wil Nieves (C/1B/Ari)

SP - Jordan Zimmermann (Was)
SP - Jeff Karstens (Pit)
SP - Brett Cecil (Tor)
RP - Micha Owings (SD)
RP - Cesar Ramos (TB)
RP - Jeurys Familia (NYM)

Teams without a #27 this season: Boston, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland, Colorado , Oakland, San Francisco, St. Louis Cardinals

Does this mean the number 27 is blessed or a sign of greatness? No, it means 22 MLB players wore that number this season. That is the joy with baseball, sometimes you just look at a number and pull something noteworthy out of it. Can you identify a more challenging number in baseball this season?

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Braves happy to leave the drama behind

Last season the Braves took their season as far as it could go, hoping to avoid a collapse. They played beyond the standard 9 in game 162 thanks to Craig Kimbrel's blown save. Hunter Pence of the Philadelphia Phillies finished off their September collapse with a game-winning single in the top of the 13th. The Atlanta Braves had done it, they had blown an 8-1/2 game lead for the wild card with one of the biggest collapses in baseball history. If it wasn't for the Boston Red Sox matching that incompetence with a collapse of their own, it would have been a bigger national headline.

We know what happened next, the St. Louis Cardinals claimed the only N.L. Wild Card spot and rode a wave of momentum all the way to a World Series Championship. There was no joy in Atlanta, only questions of what went wrong and who would suffer. Blame gravitated toward manager Fredi Gonzalez and his overuse of the bullpen, specifically Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty. Ultimately no one was fired and manager and team made silent promises that this year would be different, this year wouldn't come down to 162.

Last night, game 154, they kept that promise. Freddie Freeman, their rising star of a first baseman, launched a two-run walk-off homerun to clinch their postseason ticket.

This is the kind of drama the Braves can live with, this is the type of drama that October demands. With a more rested bullpen and a team desperate to bury last seasons collapse in a champagne shower, these Braves can now get ready for the post-season, a whole 8 games early.

Thursday, September 20, 2012


The MVP is an award to celebrate a truly spectacular season by a player in his league. It is an individual award that is often heavily and erroneously weighed against a teams overall record. This has some merit in a close race between 2 or more close candidates where voters/fans are looking for an edge to distinguish them. In such a situation the final team records can serve as a final tiebreaker. However, some seasons defy such simplistic and erroneous logic. Justin Verlander of 2011 is a prime example of rewarding a truly out of this world performance. A more accurate way to interpret the award is to give it to the most valuable player regardless of team record, but ensuring that the winning player is the actual MVP of their own team. 

The Baseball Writers Association of America determines the annual winners of this award and presents the following guidelines:

Dear Voter:
There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.
The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:
1.  Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2.  Number of games played.
3.  General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4.  Former winners are eligible.
5.  Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.
Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, including pitchers and designated hitters.
It surprises me that so much confusion comes about every year for voting on this award when the rules have not changed since their inception in 1931. Earlier today Doug Miller at gave his thoughts on the race. I created a list of competitors over at fangraphs to help compare the leaders.

A 126 580 167 27 118 0.395 9.4
B 147 641 190 41 101 0.398 6.8
C 147 628 170 30 91 0.371 6.4
D 143 600 175 33 90 0.355 5.9
E 138 592 149 42 98 0.358 4.9
F 139 594 139 40 88 0.382 4.1
G 149 643 171 30 95 0.336 4.1
H 145 670 200 15 93 0.366 3.5

To aid you in your objective opinion I have excluded the names next to the stats, but will post them below. Traditionally voters tend to reward power and offensive production (which is why I highlight the offensive numbers here, the Fangraphs link does include their defensive metrics). However, as we have seen with they Cy Young award voting in recent years some voters are starting to look more seriously at advanced sabermetrics. If this trend continues into MVP voting then WAR value might carry more weight as it also factors in defensive impact. However you vote, I hope you keep the guidelines of the BWAA in mind and vote based on individual merit rather than team standing. So who has your vote?

A - Mike Trout, CF Angels

B - Miguel Cabrera, 3B Tigers

C - Robinson Cano, 2B Yankees

D - Adrian Beltre, 3B Rangers

E - Josh Hamilton, CF Rangers

F - Edwin Encarnacion, 1B Blue Jays

G - Adam Jones, CF Orioles

H - Derek Jeter, SS Yankees